Questions Regarding a New NCR Study to the Loudoun Board of Supervisors

1. A Route 690/Route 7 Interchange study was conducted by Dewberry in 2013. This study included a no-interchange alternative, which required modeled development of the NCR through Wright Farm.

a. What other information would the proposed new study yield that was not part of the Dewberry effort?

b. Would any new study, if conducted, include traffic modeling assuming construction of the Route 690/Route 7 interchange?

2. At a community meeting with Supervisors Clarke and Higgins on October 29, 2014, a map of the area that included “Potential Alignment Suggested by Supervisor Clarke (2014)” was presented. This potential alignment appears to minimize exercise of current Wright Farm Right of Ways, limiting impact to the community. However, we are unclear on the approach used in the development of these new, potential alignments.

a. Were county engineering staff involved in the development of any alternative alignments? If so, what preliminary engineering considerations were made in the development of these alignments?
b. As it appears, one or more alignments run through property currently owned by the Stupar estate, with no current Right of Way (ROW) reservations. Was or has any representative of the Stupar estate been communicated with regarding these potential alignments?
c. Has any other potential stakeholder been involved in the design and diagramming of these alternative alignments?

3. Supervisor Clarke’s email Newsletter dated October 27, 2014 stated the following:

“I want to make sure the Wright Farm community does not have to be concerned about the alignment going across any of their properties when [note 'when', not 'if'] this segment of road becomes a reality.”

It appears by this statement that it is assumed, a priori, that the NCR will eventually run through Wright Farm (regardless of study outcome). Could you please clarify what was meant by this statement?

4. With regard to the proposed NCR study itself,

a. It is highly focused on “determin[ing] if the roadway is still needed” (Supervisor Clarke’s specific action item memo (#15) dated November 5, 2014). What specific transportation related metrics and measures will be used in this determination? Using those metric and measures, how is the need for the road defined and determined? In other words, what is or are the go-no-go metrics for NCR construction in and through Wright Farm? To put this plainly - what specific problem is trying to be solved by running the NCR through Wright Farm and how will this study determine if that problem can be solved?
b. What traffic flow and demand models will be required to be used for this study?
c. Will these models include assumptions regarding new development on or along the NCR within Wright Farm? Will these models include assumptions regarding new development on properties adjoining Wright Farm?
d. What is the method of validation of the model for base year forecasts (i.e., when has traffic data to be used in the model last been collected?).
e. How will the study contractor be instructed to determine total road costs? Specifically, will community costs (e.g. property devaluation) be included as a separate estimated cost variable for consideration, or just as a constraint?
f. With direct relation to community costs, will the impact to (increased) traffic flow on Wright Farm Drive west of Route 287 caused by NCR construction be modeled and included as an input to the cost function?
g. How will uncertainty in the model results be provided? Will a determination of study uncertainty be a requirement placed into the RFP?
h. What measures will be taken to reduce to a minimum the possibility of confirmation bias and/or overestimation bias in the results (both problems are prevelant in transportation studies)? Our concern is that the existence of past (but defunct) transportation plans that include the NCR running through Wright Farm in some way provide the rationale for the need of the road, and a study will be conducted with that mindset (leading to confirmation bias). Likewise, overestimation of the utility of the NCR running through Wright Farm is a possible regret if indeed the study contractor perceives that decision makers have provided an impresssion that such an alternative provides desired outcomes, some of which may have (only) secondary transportation benefits.

Thank you,

The signed petitioners and residents of Wright Farm